1. Faculty of Social Sciences
  2. Building capacity for European Earth System Tipping Points Governance

Building capacity for European Earth System Tipping Points Governance

Coral Reef

Professor Viktoria Spaiser's research makes a critical contribution to climate action by advancing understanding of Earth System Tipping Points (ESTPs) and their implications for effective, anticipatory governance. A central barrier to climate action is the limited recognition of how tipping points can trigger non-linear, cascading risks that extend beyond environmental systems. This project addresses that barrier by reframing climate change as a systemic risk, highlighting how breaching tipping points can lead to destabilisation, economic shocks, and social unrest. The project is embedded within the Global Tipping Points research network, involving approximately 200 researchers and experts worldwide with the aim to integrates natural and social sciences to address the complex, systemic nature of ESTPs.

Professor Spaiser's leadership in the 2023 Global Tipping Points Report provides policymakers and civil society with a more comprehensive understanding of climate risk. The research has directly influenced major European and UK policy processes, placing ESTPs on the agenda of institutions including the European Commission and the European Environment Agency. It has helped shape discussions around the inclusion of ESTPs in the forthcoming EU Climate Risk Assessment (EUCRA2), a key mechanism guiding European climate policy. In the UK, the work has informed the Advanced Research and Invention Agency (ARIA), influencing the design of a funding call on Forecasting Tipping Points, embedding governance considerations at an early stage. Furthermore, ongoing engagement with civil society organisations such as WWF and the Global Citizen Assembly enhances public understanding of tipping point risks and supports wider awareness and advocacy. This work includes ESTP Governance sessions with the Global Citizen Assembly to showcase how citizens can meaningfully contribute to finding responses to the ESTPs as well as a workshop at the Global Tipping Points Conference in Malaysia.

Media engagement and high-level dissemination, including at COP28 and COP30 processes, further extend the reach of this work.  The project provides strong impact across policy, innovation, and public engagement, shaping how climate risks are understood, communicated, and governed.

This research is funded by Professor Spaiser’s UKRI Future Leaders Fellowship (MR/V021141/1 and UKRI2043).#

Key publications

Spaiser, V., over 200, A. (2023). Global Tipping Points Report: Global Tipping Points Report. Exeter, UK: University of Exeter. 

Report on the November 2024 meeting with EU bodies. 

Spaiser, V., Community Involvement and Leadership in Tipping Points Governance, under review in Earth System Governance. Preprint on SSRN. 

Spaiser, V., Juhola, S., Constantino, S. M., Guo, W., Watson, T., Sillmann, J., . . . Spears, B. M. (2024). Negative social tipping dynamics resulting from and reinforcing Earth system destabilization. Earth System Dynamics, 15(5), 1179-1206. doi:10.5194/esd-15-1179-2024  (part of Special Issue Accompanying the first Global Tipping Points Report).