Advancing Holistic Risk Assessment for Measures to Address Climate Change

Start date: 1 April 2025
End date: 31 August 2029
Funding: Natural Environment Research Council (NERC)
Value: £3,270,586; £470,000 Leeds
Partners and collaborators: Imperial College London, University of Exeter, University of Bristol
Primary investigator: Prof Olaf Corry
Co-investigators: Dr. Danielle Young
External co-investigators: Sebastien Eastham, Imperial College London (Primary investigator, overall project); Robin Chadwick (University of Exeter); Chris Jones (University of Bristol); Colleen Golja (Imperial College London)

Stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) is being studied as a potential way to reduce global temperature increases due to greenhouse gas emissions by reflecting sunlight. While it might mask some global warming its broader risks and potential effects, including on global society, are not well understood. This project aims to address that by looking at two main challenges.

First, SAI's effects on things like droughts, air quality, and extreme weather might differ from those of reducing greenhouse gas concentrations. More research is needed to understand these physical impacts and their global distribution.

Second, current studies often focus exclusively on SAI's physical effects and neglect the role of social, political, and economic factors. This can lead to incomplete risk assessments.

The project proposes a new framework combining risk analysis with Earth system modelling. By focusing on a few key scenarios and understanding their physical impacts while also exploring potential effects that the possibility of SAI and information about likely impacts might have on future decision making, researchers can better assess the risks and benefits of SAI alongside other climate measures and its potential implications for other climate measures.

Project aims

This approach will help provide more comprehensive and policy-relevant information for future climate decisions.

Project website

https://www.ukri.org/news/modelling-the-impact-of-solar-radiation-modification/